Melbourne Cup Day tips - Race-by-race guide to Melbourne Cup Day

Melbourne Cup Day

Melbourne Cup Day features 10 races headlined by the Race That Stops A Nation and we've got the best bets across the entire programme in our race-by-race guide.

Enter the Melbourne Cup Day Megapick at Ladbrokes for your chance to win $3million.

The clouds hung around without dropping much rain over the weekend and with good weather ahead we can expect a firm track in Good range and the swoopers may have a slight advantage.   

Race 1 - Emirates Plate (1000m)

The first race on the card presents an extremely difficult proposition for punters with a field of twenty 2yo fillies (11 unraced) doing the 1000m dash down the famous Flemington straight. Of the nine runners with raceday experience MIHALIC, PIERRETTE and RESULTS look the hardest to beat. While LADY ESPRIT, THURLOW and COMPRENDE look the better of the first starters but really just about anything can happen in these types of races. Pierrette and Thurlow are my top picks but the market will be our best guide.
Bet: Win - Pierrette ($10 Bet365)
Bet: Win - Thurlow ($6.50 Bet365

Race 2 - Tab.com.au Trophy (1700m) 

I expected GIRL IN FLIGHT to be highly competitive in the Group 1 Myer Classic on Saturday, however she was scratched from that event in favour of racing here, and considering I rated her a good chance against that much stronger company she should be extremely hard to beat in this grade. She is also unbeaten at over this distance and will be ready to peak at her third run back from a spell. Sydney galloper ENTERTAINS is the obvious danger and with the Sydney form already standing up strongly in Melbourne this spring I recommend keeping him very safe. AMANPOUR and PRECIOUS GEM will be running on and are the best of the rest.  
Bet: Win - Girl In Flight ($4.50 Sportingbet)
Bet: Win - Entertains ($10 Ladbrokes)



Race 3 - Visit Victoria Plate (2800m)

ORDER OF THE SUN will bounce across from barrier 8 to take up the running and try control this race from start to finish. He has been in good form recently while the 2800m distance and firm ground should suit him perfectly, however I am quietly confident that something can run him down over the concluding stages and I really want to be with CLEAR DIRECTION at a very big price. This 5yo staying mare made up good late ground over 2400m at Geelong last start and with a significant drop in the weights she is certainly capable of causing the upset. She is drawn the get the gun run and looks a great eachway bet.
Bet: Eachway - Clear Direction ($34w and $9.50p Bet365)

Race 4 - Lavazza Short Black (1400m)

THE QUARTERBACK has been very impressive since returning from a spell and being third-up now he should be rock-hard-fit and ready to produce his best. But from the awkward draw with the big weight he does look a touch vulnerable and there are many dangers in this field. Given their fair share of luck SPY DECODER, GRACIOUS PROSPECT, GENERAL GROOVE and BON ROCKET are all going well enough to win, but finding a standout selection has proved to be a very difficult task and I thought playing some exotics was our most attractive option. 
Bet: Trifecta - Roving/Banker - The Quarterback - 5,9,13,16 ($36 gets 100% at BetEasy)
Bet: First 4 - Roving/Banker – The Quaterback - Spy Decoder - 9,13,16 ($72 gets 100% at Luxbet)

Race 5 - Schweppes #Flemingtonfling (1000m)

The 3yo filly MS MAZETTI resumes from a spell and is capable of absolutely flying fresh. This beautifully bred daughter of Lonhro got the better of boom 3yo colt Rich Enuff when first-up over this same trip during her previous campaign and her recent trial performance indicated she is going just as good this time around. She is my clear top pick but we should be having something on the 3yo gelding BULLPIT as well. Dropping back to the 1000m could see him dramatically improve and he returning massive overs at $51.
Bet: Win - Ms Mazetti ($7.00 Sportsbet)
Bet: Eachway - Bullpit ($51.00w and 15.00p Sportingbet)



Race 6 - Lexus Hybrid Plate (1400m)

The Chris Waller-trained WINE TALES appears to be a class above the rest of this field and going on her Sydney form she should be winning this event quite comfortably. Her running style is perfectly suited to the Flemington circuit and jumping from barrier 4 regular jockey Tim Clark should be able to give her the run of the race. On exposed form SEA SPRAY and LONDON LOLLY do have the ability to threaten the favourite but I don't expect that to happen on this occasion. 
Bet: Win - Wine Tales ($2.60 Ladbrokes)

Race 7 - Melbourne Cup (3200m)

I am extremely confident that the winner of this year’s Cup will be coming through one of just three key lead-up races being the Caulfield Cup (2400m), the Cox Plate (2040m) and the Herbert Power Stakes (2400m). Out of the Caulfield Cup it’s almost impossible to see any runner other than LUCIA VALENTINA turning the tables on the Japanese stayer ADMIRE RAKTI who well and truly deserves to be our Cup favourite. FAWKNER is clearly best chance coming through the Cox Plate but I suspect he could be vulnerable inside the final 100m if the pressure is on. While PROTECTIONIST and SIGNOFF who come through the Herbert Power are the only other winning hopes. In fact, I would be shocked if one of those five gallopers wasn't our 2014 Cup champion. Exotic players can include any (or all) of RED CADEAUX, JUNOOB, MUTUAL REGARD, WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, BRAMBLES, LIDARI (best roughie), OPINION and ARALDO in some trifectas and first fours which usually pay a fortune due to the large pools. But again I would be surprised if any other than those runners finished in the top four. Keenest on Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti, while Lidari and Who Shot Thebarman represent the best value
Bet: Win - Lucia Valentina ($8.00 Sportingbet)
Bet: First 4 - 1st. 1,22 - 2nd. 1,3,5,12,22 - 3rd. 1,3,5,12,19,22 - 4th. 1,3,5,8,11,12,16,19,21,22,24 ($528 gets 100% at Ladbrokes)



Race 8 - James Boag's Premium Stakes (1800m)

PHEIDON is a galloper with plenty of upside and he looks the best winning hope in this wide open event. Looking for dangers, STIPULATE wasn't beaten far in the Caulfield Cup last time out, he is much better suited over this shorter trip and represents good value. BEL THOR was sensational in the Seymour Cup last start and he loves racing on this track. ZABISCO will take improvement from his solid first-up performance and has some claims. And we cannot ignore the class of the Japanese runner ADMIRE INAZUMA despite failing at his Australian debut. Pheidon is the one to beat but we must go with the value as well.
Bet: Win - Pheidon ($6.50 Sportsbet)
Bet: Win - Admire Inazuma ($11 TomWaterhouse)

Race 9 - Miss Security Sprint (1200m)

I’ve given eight runners a genuine winning hope in this event so finding the winner is going to be tough. In this situation we need to find value and I make two clear two standouts. AOMEN ($19.00) was outstanding winning his Australian debut and the drop back to 1200m will definitely see him be hard to catch. And ICONIC ($8.50) who desperately unlucky in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes last start will be attacking the line hard. Both runners are well over their true odds of winning.  
Bet: Win - Aomen ($18 Sportsbet)
Bet: Win - Iconic ($8.50 Bet365)   

Race 10 - Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)
 
Again we can find plenty of value in the last race on the card, GRIANTE ($11.00), NAUTICAL ($21.00) and BELLE DE COEUR ($15.00) are all returning overs in my opinion. But the one I’m really interested in is MY SABEEL. Her Sydney form has been ultra-consistent while racing in Group company and she is a mare that looks ideally suited at Flemington. Senior jockey Craig Williams should give her the gun run from barrier 4 and she will be very strong over the final furlong. She is also returning good overs with bookmakers and looks a great eachway bet.
Bet: Eachway - My Sabeel ($12.00w and $3.80p Ladbrokes)


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Melbourne Cup Day tips - Race-by-race guide to Melbourne Cup Day

Get our expert tips for Melbourne Cup Day and predictions for all 10 races at Flemington.

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