The essential guide to the 2009 Melbourne Cup.(credit:
Two Big Paws)
The wait for the 2009 Melbourne Cup is finally over and while the atmosphere really begins to reach fever pitch, punters will be hard at work trying to solve one of the hardest puzzles on the planet; who will win the big race?
To save you some time, our racing expert Nick Wilby casts his eye over the field and lets you know what to expect.
1 – VIEWED
B Rawiller
B Cummings
Form: 0713
Current odds: 5.00 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 9) – 58kg
The winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup, Viewed returns to the scene of his greatest triumph as favourite for the big race and he is sure to put up a serious fight for his crown. Trained by the legendary Bart Cummings he showed he was on target for Tuesday when he bolted home under an inspired ride from Brad Rawiller in the Caulfield Cup. Almost certainly the best stayer in training in Australia, he looks ready to roll judged on his creditable run in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. Viewed will take the world of beating in a race that he is already proven in.
2 – C’EST LA GUERRE
N Hall
J Sadler
Form: 4000
Current odds: 26.00 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 7) – 55.5kg
Lloyd William’s 2008 New Zealand Derby winner has never really built on his talent and it would be seriously hard to argue that he has lived up to expectations in Australia. He enters calculations on his third behind Viewed in the 2008 Melbourne Cup but while he has every chance of grabbing a place he doesn’t tick enough boxes for me. Respected nonetheless.
3 – FIUMICINO
S King
M, W & J Hawkes
Form: 0035
Current odds: 71.00 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 24) – 55.5kg
Fiumicino heads into Tuesday’s race with a big race prize already to his name. That came in the shape of the BMW this autumn and the Hawkes horse was last seen finishing fifth to Viewed in the Caulfield Cup. That run was even better than it looked with the underfoot conditions totally against him. He would love it to rain in the build up to the Melbourne Cup and if it did, then punters should pay serious attention to the chances of Fiumicino.
4- MASTER O’REILLY
V Duric
D O’Brien
Form: 7465
Current odds: 14.00 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 16) – 55kg
2007 Caulfield Cup winner Master O'Reilly has not won a race since his big day out two years ago. However the seven-year-old has produced a string of encouraging performances this preparation following a luckless fourth in last year's Cup. Importantly, he'll relish the wide open spaces of Flemington and he would be a popular winner. O’Brien’s horse is hard to totally dismiss.
5 – MOURILYAN
G Schofield
H Brown
Form: x241
Current odds: 21.00 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 14) – 54.5kg
Mourilyan is a typical international globetrotter and his latest mission has not come without controversy being owned by the Chechnyan President, Ramzan Kadyrov. Everybody has an opinion on his participation and it would be interesting to see how the crowd would react if he were to win the Melbourne Cup. It is certainly something that we may get to see if things drop right for Brown’s horse. Expect him to be flying at the death.
6 – ROMAN EMPEROR
H Bowman
B Cummings
Form: 5392
Current odds: 8.50 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 15) – 54kg
Roman Emperor heads into the Melbourne Cup with a lofty reputation and it is common knowledge that he could not be in better hands. Still relatively unexposed, the AJC Australian Derby winner was last seen finishing second to stablemate Viewed in the Caulfield Cup and he will be popular in the betting on Tuesday. Targeted at this race for some time he is versatile with regards to the ground and it would be foolish to leave him out of calculations.
7 – ISTA KAREEM
L Nolen
C Alderson
Form: 0040
Current odds: 81.00 (Sportsbet)
(Stall 23) – 53.5kg
Admirable stayer Ista Kareem was the winner of the Sydney Cup at Randwick in the autumn. Emphatic in victory there, the Melbourne Cup automatically became the aim for connections and everything had been going smoothly. That was until he flopped in the Cathay Pacific Airways Cup at Moonee Valley last time out and faith in him here is not advised.
8 – CRIME SCENE
K McEvoy
S bin Surror
Form: 6196
Current odds: 51.00 (Sportsbet)
(11) – 53kg
After Kirklees was pulled from the field, Crime Scene has now been left as the sole Godolphin representative in this year’s Melbourne Cup. The stable could not be in better form and this globetrotter has a very decent looking strike rate. However, there were no arguments when he was beaten by Leica Ding in the Geelong Cup and while he is likely to improve after that run, it is not the easiest thing to do picturing him winning. He is blinkered for the first time.
9 – MUNSEF
Z Purton
I Williams
Form: 2112
Current odds: 51.00 (Sportsbet)
(5) – 53kg
Another international challenger, Munsef has made his trade in middle-distance contests all over Europe. The veteran has produced superb efforts to win twice at Chester and then at Ascot and he capped a superb season when last seen finishing second in the Group II Stockholm Cup in Sweden. He will like the ground to be really fast and he will give it his all but it is unlikely he is good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.
10 – ZAVITE
M Zahra
A Cummings
Form: 8849
Current odds: 71.00 (Sportsbet)
(3) – 53kg
Zavite is another one who heads into the Melbourne Cup with 100% effort almost guaranteed and he would have a chance based on his victory in the Adelaide Cup. However, he was unimpressive when finishing down the field in the Caulfield Cup and he is another who probably lacks the class to win a race of this stature.
11 – ALCOPOP
D Tourneur
J Stephens
Form: 1111
Current odds: 5.00 (Sportsbet)
(12) – 52.5kg
Alcopop could not have been more impressive so far this season and he could cap a memorable year if he were to remain unbeaten after the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Currently vying for favoritism with Viewed, he looked a world beater when he demolished the field in the Group II Herbert Power Handicap at Caulfield on his prep-run and he has been heavily supported ever since. Open to improvement he is the hype horse in the race and he could be good enough to swamp this field if everything goes according to plan.
12 – HARRIS TWEED
C Newitt
M & B Baker
Form: 9300
Current odds: 101.00 (Sportsbet)
(20) – 52.5kg
Harris Tweed was a seriously talented three-year-old last season and he was good enough to land the Tulloch Stakes before finishing second to Roman Emperor in the AJC Australian Derby. He has not returned to the same form this spring and is another one who heads to Flemington with the underfoot conditions at the forefront of his mind. He could do with the heavens to open if he is to have a chance here and even after rain he is unlikely to be first past the posts come Tuesday.
13 – KIBBUTZ
C Symons
J McLean
Form: 0604
Current odds: 61.00 (Sportsbet)
(8) – 52.5kg
The winner of the 2007 Victoria Derby at Flemington, big things were expected of Kibbutz after that performance and he seemed certain to land more big prizes. Unfortunately for connections he has never built on that talent and he has an abundance of question marks to his name. Nonetheless he did produce an improved display in the Cathay Pacific Airways Cup at Moonee Valley and he will relish this extended trip.
14 – NEWPORT
P Wells
P Perry
Form: 7786
Current odds: 41.00 (Sportsbet)
(18) – 52.5kg
Newport won The Metropolitan in 2008 but it says it all that he is perhaps best known for his propensity to refuse to race. He has been gradually coming to hand and it has to be said that his trainer has a good record in Melbourne, but he is another one who is chasing the prospect of rain to really believe he has a chance of winning.
15 – WARRINGAH
D Oliver
C Waller
Form: 1152
Current odds: 31.00 (Sportsbet)
(17) – 52.5kg
Formerly trained by British training legend Sir Michael Stoute, Warringah will be partnered by Victoria’s leading jockey Damien Oliver for new handler Chris Waller. The four-year-old is arguably the most promising of the international brigade after a gallant performance in England’s Ebor Handicap where he carried top weight and there will be a lot of interest for this talented stayer overseas. He has become a very interesting and live contender for the Melbourne Cup.
16 – GALLIONS REACH
D Dunn
R Yuill
Form: 7005
Current odds: 201.00 (Sportsbet)
(6) – 52kg
Gallions Reach heads to Flemington seemingly doomed before the race has even begun with the fact that he is yet to win beyond 2200 metres. He was hammered by Leica Ding in the Geelong Cup and there will be unbelievable scenes if he were good enough to land this.
17 - SPIN AROUND
M de Plessis
S Cooper
Form: 0x00
Current odds: 201.00 (Sportsbet)
(4) – 52kg
Spin Around was the impressive winner of the Auckland Cup at Ellerslie in March and he heads to Flemington guaranteed to stay . There are no question marks over his temperament, but it is hard to make a case for him winning a race of this prestige.
18 – BASALTICO
D Nikolic
L Cumani
Form: 8427
Current odds: 31.00 (Sportsbet)
(10) – 51.5kg
Luca Cumani will be looking to ease the pain of close seconds twice on the bounce in this race with his import Basaltico. Everybody will be aware that his initial run on Australian shores was disappointing, but a replay of his seventh placing in the Geelong Cup reveals a run worthy of some merit and he could be backed simply on his trainer’s impeccable record away from home.
19 – CAPECOVER
N Harris
A Fieldes
Form: 8477
Current odds: 81.00 (Sportsbet)
(19) – 51.5kg
Capecover heads to Flemington with some good efforts in hot Melbourne Cup prep races under his belt and he showed a nice turn of foot to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day of the 2008 Melbourne Cup carnival. He won’t be carrying my money but there are worse bets to be had on the day, could land a place at a price if everything goes smoothly.
20 - DAFFODIL
C Munce
K Gray
Form: 4144
Current odds: 16.00 (Sportsbet)
(21) – 51.5kg
Probably New Zealand’s best chance of winning the Melbourne Cup this year, Daffodil is very unexposed and was last seen finishing fast behind Viewed in the Caulfield Cup. She finished fourth that day and she is eexpected to improve again for the longer trip. One of the more exciting horses in a thrilling race.
21 – SHOCKING
C Brown
M Kavanagh
Form: 3221
Current odds: 11.00 (Sportsbet)
(22) – 51kg
One of few four-year-olds contesting this year's Cup is the Mark Kavanagh-trained Shocking. If the from around Alcopop stands up, he will be around the mark at the business end of the race. A stylish victory in The Lexus Stakes on Derby Day suggests he's a genuine lightweight candidate for and he heads into the race with a good chance of becoming a hero.
22 – ALLEZ WONDER
Ms M Payne
B Cummings
Form: 0118
Current odds: 31.00 (Sportsbet)
(13) – 50.5kg
Allez Wonder’s finest moment came in the Group I Toorak Handicap at Caulfield (1600m) recently and if you forgive her below-par performance when finishing unplaced in the Caulfield Cup last time out then she is certainly one for the shortlist. A small issue for me is that the trip is not really up her street but she is most certainly respected.
23 – CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
G Boss
D Hayes
Form: 1126
Current odds: 21.00 (Sportsbet)
(1)–50.5kg
David Hayes is looking to post a victory in the Melbourne Cup with the imported Changingoftheguard. Formerly trained by Irish training sensation Aidan O’Brien, he was see as good enough to contest the Group 1 St Leger at Doncaster. The three-year-old's training schedule has been hampered by a foot abscess, which would seemingly make it difficult to tip him as a genuine chance. However, if he were to be fully wound up in time for Tuesday he is a serious threat to all and I think he has the ability to land the 2009 Melbourne Cup.
24 – LEICA DING
C Williams
D Weir
Form: 6321
Current odds: 21.00 (Sportsbet)
(2)–50.5kg
The Darren Weir-trained Leica Ding has long been touted a Melbourne Cup fancy, and gets his chance following an impressive win in the Geelong Cup last time out. The Group 3 lead-up has proven a strong form race with last year's winner Bauer going on to finish a nose second to Viewed in the Melbourne Cup and there has been strong support for him ever since his victory that day. He is another who could easily run a huge race on Tuesday.
Nick Wilby’s verdict:
As usual the Melbourne Cup provides punters with one of the hardest punting puzzles known to the horse racing world. Of the 24 horses set to go to post, over half of the challengers have a feasible chance of becoming a part of history. Bart Cummings has to be respected and it would be no surprise to see Viewed retain his Cup crown but a chance is taken on WARRINGAH to make the most of his trip down under. Responsible for some top class form for Sir Michael Stoute, presuming he has settled into his new surroundings he could slip under the radar and return at a very nice price indeed. Changingoftheguard would be a threat to all if he were fully wound up, while Leica Ding, Alcopop and Shocking are genuine contenders. Daffodil is another who should not be dismissed and she could still be anything.
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